It is a bit difficult to figure out how Mercom CapitalGroup makes its estimates.
I am not complaining. At the same time, I am not envying them.
Getting estimates done for how much rooftop solar India will do in the next few years is as tricky as it can get.
While grid connected, utility scale solar is having a much easier time in terms of capacities and scaling, rooftop solar in India is right now in a difficult corner.
Of the 4200 MW installed in the country, less than 10% is accounted for by rooftop solar. And the installations are not exactly growing at a fast enough pace.
We did some crystal gazing ourself at Solar Mango, the division of EAI that is focussed on solar research and consulting, and our best estimate is that by 2020, India will have about 5 GW of rooftop solar, and perhaps about 7 GW by 2022.
But that is based on the way things are moving right now. Challenges in awareness, Net Metering, unstable incentive policy, and significant chaos created in the market by low quality vendors are all making rooftop solar growth in India a challenging domain.
Anyway, reverting to the Mercom, this is what the group has to say about its predictions of rooftop solar installations in India by 2022:
By 2021-22, Gujarat could emerge as the fourth largest state in India with proposed 3,200 megawatt (MW) grid connected rooftop solar power projects…
…by 2021-22, Maharashtra would lead with 4,700 Mw rooftop projects followed by Uttar Pradesh with 4,300 Mw and Tamil Nadu with 3,500 Mw grid connected rooftop solar power projects. The projections come at a time when the Gujarat government recently declared relaxation in revised Solar Power Policy 2015.”
Uttar Pradesh? Hmmm…that will be nice, if UP indeed climbs the ladder fast on any type of solar power. Right now, India’s largest state is seriously lagging behind others in solar, as it does in many other areas of development.
Source: Business Standard